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There’s more than one way to forecast a recession. Our investment pros explain the indicators they watch.

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Comparing the cost of becoming an adult across decades.

a recession

The health of the commercial real estate market and the banking system is the linchpin for whether or not the U.S. can avoid recession.

Deborah Cunningham Chief investment officer, Global Liquidity

Developments in financial and credit conditions will be key going forward as the extraordinary tightening by the world’s major central banks has just started to significantly affect the global economy.

Silvia Dall'Angelo Senior economist

The Leading Economic Indicators index relies on a broad range of measures that historically have been good at signaling turns in the economy, while the trajectory of initial jobless claims is also telling.

Linda Duessel Senior equity strategist

The Treasury yield curve is inverted, perhaps the most reliable predictor of a recession, but the last time the money supply contracted as steadily as it is now was during the Great Depression.

Donald Ellenberger Head of Multi-sector Strategies Group

The comprehensive scope of the Leading Economic Indicators index is a potent tool, and an inversion in the Treasury yield curve has never failed to precede a recession.

R.J. Gallo Head of Municipal Bond Investment Group

Comparing the cost of becoming an adult across decades.

While both measures may have peaked, the path of inflation and tightness of the labor market remain major factors determining if an economic recession will be realized.

Lewis Grant Senior portfolio manager