Our latest views on data, trends and events influencing the markets.
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third QUARTER 2025
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October 2025
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A scenario-focused look at what’s moving markets.
Fourth QUARTER 2025
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Featuring our latest forecasts and key capital markets trends.
March 2026
Monthly Update
The start of the war in Iran brought an immediate increase in oil prices and angst for motorists filling up at the gas station. It’s become apparent lately, however, that more than just oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz – and that the war’s economic effects will be wide-ranging.
Food prices are one obvious area of vulnerability. For one, urea-based fertilizers are getting more expensive since a third of the global urea trade passes through the Strait.1 For another, soaring fuel costs could now make it economical to burn certain foods for energy (think palm oil and corn ethanol, for example), thus adding pressure to the supply side. Finally – and most importantly for the developed world – there’s the cost of the energy required to bring food from the farm to the dinner table.
The lion’s share of food costs aren’t just the raw commodities themselves but everything else – shipping, storage, packaging, and so forth. Much of that will also cost more so long as oil prices stay high. The trucks that deliver food cost more to operate, but there are so many other ways that the farm-to-table food chain can hurt. The bags that hold potato chips, for example, are made from polypropylene, a petrochemical. A can of soda pop is made from aluminum, which is suddenly in shorter supply since nearly a tenth of global production comes from the Middle East.2
One element far removed from the dining table that will cost more is helium. A byproduct of natural gas production, nearly a third of the global helium supply comes from Qatar – but only when the Strait of Hormuz is open.3 So, birthday balloons will be less buoyant. Unfortunately for investors, helium is also needed to produce semiconductors and MRI machines, among other purposes. It’s a difficult gas to transport and the supply is said to be brittle.
MARCH 30, 2026
Commodity prices are being pumped up by the war in Iran.
Everything that rises must converge
Our latest views on data, trends and events influencing the markets.
Capital Markets
US consumer debt continues to climb
Our outlook:
If the war ends before too much longer, we are more likely to see a stronger return to normal economic activity. Accordingly, a continued growth scenario is likely to depend, in part, on a relatively quick end to the fighting.
A prolonged war is more likely to lead to a stagflationary environment, with slowing growth and elevated inflation. That could favor strength in real assets, which perform well under inflation. A rapid growth scenario is more difficult to foresee at present due to the war and the many ways it chokes off access to key inputs. Still, booming AI development remains one potential source of solid growth in the months ahead.
For more on our scenario-led outlooks read our monthly and quarterly Capital Markets publications.
1: CNBC 3/25/26
2: S&P Global 3/6/26
3: CNBC 3/19/26
The cost of war
Not just oil and gas: the Iran War is disrupting other commodities too
Source: Trading Economics, March 24, 2026.