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DISCLOSURES Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • No Bank Guarantee Federated Securities Corp. 24-40160 (5/24)

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The Federated Hermes Recession Dashboard tracks six key recession indicators to predict the earliest implied recession date based on the historical average amount of time that each indicator takes to go from its cycle-best level to the start of a recession.

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Recession

March 2023

Consumer Price Index

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Proj. 2022 Y/E at 3mo. avg rate

6.46%

6.63%

2.35%

Current

50th percentile

25th percentile

75th percentile

4.70%

2.75%

1.97%

Entire History

50th percentile

25th percentile

75th percentile

2.35%

2.10%

1.72%

Since 2000

6.64%

8.20%

2.40%

Current

50th percentile

25th percentile

75th percentile

4.69%

2.99%

1.75%

Entire History

50th percentile

25th percentile

75th percentile

3.22%

2.14%

1.51%

Since 2000

Current (YOY%)

Implied Fed Target

Proj. 2022 Y/E at 3mo. avg rate

4.88%

4.91%

2.00%

Current

50th percentile

25th percentile

75th percentile

4.34%

2.25%

1.63%

Entire History

50th percentile

25th percentile

75th percentile

2.06%

1.75%

1.53%

Since 2000

Current (YOY%)

Implied Fed Target

Proj. 2022 Y/E at 3mo. avg rate

2.19%

6.25%

5.73%

Current

50th percentile

25th percentile

75th percentile

1.62%

2.53%

4.26%

Entire History

50th percentile

25th percentile

75th percentile

2.57%

1.94%

1.41%

Since 2000

Green: Below 50th percentile Yellow: Between 50-75th percentile Red: Above 75th percentile

Core CPI

Headline CPI

Headline PCE

Core PCE

Current (YOY%)

Implied Fed Target

Current (YOY%)

Implied Fed Target

Proj. 2022 Y/E at 3mo. avg rate

Labor Market

Inflation

Housing

Yield Curve

Spreads

Manufacturing

Increase in claims

Increase in core PCE

Decline in housing starts

10-year Treasury yield - federal funds rate

Bloomberg Corp High Yield –10-yr Treasury yield

ISM Index

50.3

2.94%

844 days

-462k

0.02%

48k

46.7

7.55%

389 days

-770k

1.38%

68k

02/2026

06/2028

12/2023

01/2025

06/2027

03/2025

Earliest implied recession date

Current

Average

Sources: Bloomberg and Federated Hermes. Data as of 3/3/25.

Outside of recession range

In recession range

Exceeding recession range

01/2026

Average:

MARCH 2025

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(Based on average days from key level recession)

Earliest implied recession date